What Is a Par Score? We Measured It Across 3,740 T20 Matches
Commentators say it constantly. Nobody defines it. A par score is simply the total that wins about half the time, so we went through every completed T20 match in our database and worked out exactly where that line sits, competition by competition. It is not where most people think.
You have heard it a hundred times. "That is about par on this pitch." "They are ten under par." It sounds precise. It is almost never explained.
So here is a plain definition, and then a measurement.
A par score is the first innings total that wins about half the time. Above it, the side batting first is favourite. Below it, the chasing side is. That is the whole idea.
The nice thing about that definition is that it can be checked, so we did. We took every completed T20 match in our database where the first innings ran its full course and the match produced a result. That is 3,740 matches, across international cricket and the major leagues.
The answer, for T20 cricket as a whole: about 160
Read the chart and the line becomes obvious.
Post in the 150s and the side batting first wins 39 per cent of the time. Post in the 160s and it wins 55 per cent. Somewhere between those two bands, at roughly 160 runs, the balance tips.
Below that, defending gets hard quickly. A total in the 120s is defended 20 per cent of the time. The 90s, 3 per cent. Above it, each additional ten runs buys real protection: the 180s are defended 69 per cent of the time, the 200s 74 per cent, and anything past 230, 90 per cent.
There is one wobble worth pointing out rather than hiding: the 190s (67 per cent) come out marginally below the 180s (69 per cent). That is a sample size artefact, not a discovery. With 258 matches in one band and 353 in the other, a couple of percentage points means nothing. The shape of the curve is the finding, not any single step in it.
But there is no single par score, and that is the point
The 160 figure is an average across very different competitions. Split them and the number moves a long way.
In the IPL, par is much higher. Totals in the 160s and 170s are defended only 42 per cent of the time. You need the 180s before defending becomes favourite at 57 per cent. Call IPL par about 185.
In men's T20 internationals, par is lower. The 160s and 170s are defended 63 per cent of the time there, which is a completely different game from the IPL at the same score. International par sits nearer 155.
In the Big Bash, the 160s and 170s are defended 53 per cent of the time: almost exactly par, and close to the global average.
In women's T20 internationals, par is around 140. Totals in the 140s and 150s are defended 49 per cent of the time, and the 160s jump to 81 per cent. At the Women's T20 World Cup, on tournament pitches, it is lower still.
Same sport, same twenty overs, four different par scores. Anyone who quotes you one number for all T20 cricket is quoting a number that is wrong nearly everywhere.
Why the chasing side has the edge overall
Across all 3,859 decided matches in our data, including those with shortened first innings, the chasing team won 52.1 per cent of the time.
That is a small edge, and it is not because chasing is easy. It is because chasing carries information. A target converts an open question ("how many is enough?") into an arithmetic problem ("we need 47 from 30"). Every over of a chase can be planned. The side batting first is guessing at what par is, which is precisely the problem this article is about.
Three things this changes about watching a match
One: update your instincts by competition, not by feel. If your sense of a good total was formed watching internationals, you will consistently overrate first innings scores in the IPL.
Two: the innings break is not where the match is decided. A total in the 160s, the most common band in our data, is close to a coin toss. The interesting cricket comes after it.
Three: par moves with conditions, and one number cannot capture that. A 150 on a used, dry pitch can be worth more than 180 on a flat one. Our per match numbers work at that level, because they are computed from what happened in similar conditions rather than from a rule of thumb.
How we measured it, so you can argue with us
We used matches where the first innings was complete, meaning twenty overs were bowled or the batting side was dismissed, and where the match produced a decision. Super overs are excluded. Matches where rain revised the target during the chase are included, and we have not separated those out, which is a limitation we would rather state than bury.
Our T20 database covers international cricket and the major leagues, with ball-by-ball records from 2013 for the IPL, 2017 for men's T20 internationals and 2020 for women's T20 internationals. So "par" here means par in the modern game, not par across all time.
Where this lives on the site
The same logic sits underneath our match predictions: rather than one guess at a total, we work in probabilities, because a distribution is what the data actually supports. You can also push totals around yourself in our simulator.
Par is not a number handed down by tradition. It is a measurement, it differs by competition, and now you know what ours says.
All figures computed by CricNerd from our own ball-by-ball T20 database.