T20's Great Change Happened in the First Six Overs, Not the Last Five
Everyone credits the death overs for modern T20 scoring. Our ball-by-ball data says otherwise. Across fourteen IPL seasons the powerplay run rate has risen by nearly three runs an over, while the death rate has gained less than one. The revolution happened while the field was still up.
Ask anyone where T20 scoring exploded and you will hear the same answer: the last five overs. Ramps, scoops, wide yorkers, two hundred metre sixes into the second tier.
We hold every ball of 4,102 T20 matches, so the claim is checkable. We split every innings into three phases, replayed them delivery by delivery, and checked each innings against its own scorecard before counting it. The answer is not the one everybody gives.
The IPL, phase by phase, across fourteen seasons
In 2013, IPL teams scored at 6.78 an over in the powerplay, 7.24 through the middle, and 9.42 at the death.
In 2026 they scored at 9.68 in the powerplay, 9.13 through the middle, and 10.39 at the death.
Line those up:
- Powerplay: plus 2.90 runs an over.
- Middle overs: plus 1.89.
- Death overs: plus 0.97.
The phase that changed most is the one with only two fielders outside the circle, and the phase that changed least is the one everyone talks about. The death overs of 2013 were already close to ten an over. There was less room left in them.
The gap has almost closed
The more striking way to see it: in 2013 the death rate was 2.64 runs an over faster than the powerplay. By 2026 that gap is 0.71.
An IPL powerplay now scores at nearly the rate the death overs did a decade ago. The first six overs used to be a negotiation. They are now an assault that happens to be legal because the field is up.
It is not just the IPL
Men's T20 internationals show the same direction, more gently. Powerplay rate 7.46 in 2019 to 8.31 in 2026, while the death rate moved from 9.40 to 9.59. Again: powerplay up, death nearly flat.
Across the competitions we hold, the phase pattern is remarkably consistent, and the differences between competitions are mostly differences in the powerplay:
- PSL: 8.28 powerplay, 8.06 middle, 10.13 death.
- IPL: 8.07, 7.97, 10.03.
- Men's T20 internationals: 7.72, 7.66, 9.45.
- Big Bash: 7.48, 7.60, 9.38.
- Men's T20 World Cup: 6.95, 7.14, 9.06.
- Women's T20 internationals: 6.49, 6.76, 8.04.
Every competition finishes at roughly the same tempo. What separates a high scoring league from a low scoring one is how a side starts.
Does a big powerplay actually produce a big total?
It is one thing to score fast early, another to convert it. Across every full innings in our data, sorted by powerplay runs:
- 20 to 29 in the powerplay: the innings finishes at 120 on average.
- 30 to 39: finishes at 140.
- 40 to 49: 157.
- 50 to 59: 173.
- 60 to 69: 190.
- 70 to 79: 206.
Roughly, every extra ten powerplay runs is worth about seventeen on the final total. So the powerplay does not merely start the innings well, it multiplies.
Wickets matter more than runs
Now the same innings sorted by wickets lost in the first six overs:
- None down: 178 on average.
- One down: 167.
- Two down: 155.
- Three down: 143.
- Four down: 121.
Losing the third wicket inside the powerplay costs about 35 runs off the eventual total compared with losing one. That is the real cost of the modern powerplay: teams attack because the reward is large, and our data prices the failure just as clearly.
Where the wickets actually fall
One more number that reframes the death overs. In the IPL, a wicket falls every 23.9 balls in the powerplay, every 21.4 in the middle, and every 11.1 at the death.
The end of a T20 innings is not principally where the runs come from. It is where the wickets come from. Batting sides accept a wicket every two overs as the price of the last few boundaries.
What changed?
Our data can date and size the shift. It cannot prove a cause, and this is exactly where cricket analysis usually starts inventing.
What we can say is that this pattern fits a specific change in method rather than in athleticism. Sides stopped treating the powerplay as survival and started treating it as the cheapest scoring opportunity in the innings, because it is: only two fielders outside the circle, a hard ball, and a field that cannot be spread. The tactical logic was always there. What changed is that teams became willing to pay for it in wickets.
We wrote about the size of the overall change in How IPL Scoring Exploded. This piece is the follow up question: where inside the innings the extra runs actually came from.
How we did this, and what it excludes
Every innings was replayed ball by ball and its total compared against the official scorecard. 6,886 innings reconciled exactly and were used. 268 did not, and were dropped rather than adjusted. We would rather use less data than quietly use data we cannot verify.
Phases are overs 1 to 6, 7 to 15, and 16 to 20. Only innings that ran their full length, meaning twenty overs or all out, are included in the averages, so rain-shortened games do not distort the phase splits.
Our IPL ball-by-ball begins in 2013 and our T20 international records in 2017, so every trend here describes the modern game only.
The bottom line
T20 batting did not get better at the death. It got braver at the start. Almost three extra runs an over in the powerplay, against less than one at the death, is the clearest structural change in our fourteen seasons of IPL data.
Next time a side goes at ten in the first six overs, that is not a hot start. That is the new normal, and our numbers say the last five overs stopped being the interesting part some time ago.
All figures computed by CricNerd from our own ball-by-ball T20 database.