IPL Predictions
What our data says about how batters are likely to score, and how to read a probability without being misled by it
The current forecast
No IPL match is being forecast right now. The most recent season in our data is 2026. The IPL runs for roughly two months a year, and we publish a forecast only once a fixture is confirmed and a squad is known, so between seasons this space is deliberately empty rather than filled with a guess. Everything below is true whether or not a match is on.
How to read a batting forecast
Three ranges, not a score
We do not predict that a batter will make exactly 42. We give the probability of them finishing under 20, between 20 and 49, or on 50 and above. A single number would look precise and be worth less.
The number that makes the rest readable
Across every T20 innings in our data, 9.4% reach fifty. Even the most reliable converter we hold gets there about a quarter of the time. So a 20% chance of a fifty is a strong call, not a modest one.
Getting out cheaply is normal
For almost every batter, the single most likely outcome is under 20. That is not pessimism about a player, it is the shape of T20 batting, and any forecast that hides it is selling something.
Conditions move it more than reputation
The same batter carries a different forecast against a strong attack on a difficult surface than against a weak one on a flat deck. A career average alone is a poor guide to a single innings.
How evenly matched the IPL is
The auction spreads talent evenly across the ten franchises, and it shows up in the results. The home side has won 53.5% of the 913 IPL matches in our data, and the side batting first has won 45.5% of the 899 matches where we know who batted first. Both sit close to a coin toss, and between them they account for most of what separates one IPL match from another. It is why chasing has been the better half of the toss, and why the ground a match is played on tells you more than the badge on the shirt. Batting is where the data genuinely separates players, so that is what we forecast.
Where the ground genuinely does change things, we show it: the head to head explorer reports what has actually happened when two clubs meet at a venue, with the sample size beside every figure.
What this page covers
Our IPL ball-by-ball records begin in 2013. The first five seasons, 2008 to 2012, are outside them, so a head to head count here covers the meetings since 2013 rather than every meeting ever played. Every figure on this page is a figure over the matches we hold, and where that differs from a published total we say so rather than round the gap away.