Chasing Wins More IPL Matches Than Batting First, and It Is Not Close
Across 899 completed IPL matches in our data, the side batting first won 409 of them. That is 45.5 per cent, which makes the toss worth more than home advantage.
Ask most people what decides a Twenty20 match before a ball is bowled and they will say the better team. Our own numbers point somewhere less romantic.
The headline
Across 899 completed IPL matches in our data, from 2013 to 2026, the side batting first won 409. That is 45.5 per cent, so the side chasing won 54.5 per cent.
Put next to the other advantage everybody talks about, it looks bigger than you would expect. The home side in the same set of matches won 53.5 per cent. Winning the toss and choosing to chase has been worth more than playing at home.
Why chasing helps
A target removes the hardest question in the format. A side batting first has to guess what a good score is on a pitch nobody has batted on that evening, and then guess again at the death about whether to attack or preserve wickets. A side chasing knows the number. Every over it can measure itself against a required rate and spend its wickets accordingly.
Dew is part of it at some grounds, and a used pitch is part of it at others, but the simplest explanation is information. One side is solving a problem with the answer written down.
What it does not mean
It does not mean a captain who bats first has blundered. Fifteen matches in twenty are decided by things no toss can fix, and 45.5 against 54.5 is a lean rather than a certainty. Over a full season of fourteen games, the difference is worth roughly one result.
It also varies enormously by ground, which is where this gets genuinely useful, and which we look at separately.
Where these numbers come from
Every figure is counted from the IPL matches we hold ball by ball, 2013 to 2026, with abandoned games excluded because nobody won them. You can run the same comparison for any two clubs and any ground on our head to head page.